Stumble

As we suspected last week, the market finally succumbed to gravity with it's largest two day fall in nearly two months. Unfortunately we were stopped out, once more, the day previously. This has been an awful start to the year, the only positive we can take from this is that the maximum upward incline rate for the whole year should now been set and if so, we will be able to use this as our guide for main inflexion points for the rest of this calendar year. Friday's rally may well have provided us with a small opportunity for weakness into the end of the month. We will short a small position of 3 contracts at any price above 1520, with a stop-loss set at 1537. Should the market fall below 1490, we will take our profits.

Seventh Heaven

Oh to be an unabashed Bull in this problem free world ! Except it is not problem free, just money free if you happen to be a banker !! This free money has been trying to find a home and in the process pushed the market up 7 weeks in a row. However this rally is beginning to look tired in it's very linear ascent. Each of the last 3 weeks has shown a decreasing gain, even with a sudden surge in M & A activity. We hold a full short position to take advantage of any profit-taking here, maintaining a stop-loss at 1528 and a target price of 1482.

Another Week, Another Rally

Despite an overbought finish for the market in January, the first full week in February produced yet another gain, albeit all on the last day.We see strong resistance at 1520, that could even prove to be the high for the year. We will short a further 5 contracts on any move above this level, with a stop for all the position at 1528.

Insatiable

Despite running overbought for the best part of 3 weeks, last week the market continued reaching for the skies and in so doing stopped our position out once more. It may well be that no-one wanted to step in front of the January rally and we may now see more normal conditions re-assert themselves. We continue to think a major pull-back is due, but until we see a down or at least unchanged week, we can not risk further losses. Today (Monday) is seeing a correction and may portend a change in sentiment. Should the market rally back up to the 1514 level, we will sell 3 contracts with a tight stop of 1524.

Over, Over, Over-bought

Despite being over-bought for the last two weeks, this week the market also went over-bought on a monthly basis. Unfortunately, in so doing, we were stopped out @ 1498. At the risk of ignoring the market action, we still see a sharp set-back at any time and so are placing a sell order for 5 contracts at 1500 on the market open, we will then sell a further 3 if the market hits 1509. We will set a very tight stop @ 1512.5 for all the 8 contracts and run the position until 1450, where we will take profits.

Weight of Money

This week did indeed see volume pick-up as money flowed into the market, threatening a sharp break-out. We still view this event as unlikely at this particular time. The market is currently on trend for an approx 30%+ appreciation for the full calender year, even with the vast money printing, we find it hard to believe the market could break into a steeper rate of growth. However, we cannot ignore the market action that relentlessly presses up every day. Our position now amounts to 13 contracts on the short side. If the market does indeed rally above 1488 we will reduce by 5 contracts and then place a final stop at 1498. We are also   altering our target price to any price below 1440, where we will take full profits.

Earnings in Earnest

Despite the market's overbought situation, it managed a small gain that does nothing to change our view point from last week. Indeed, it allowed us to fill our advised sell order from last week. This upcoming week the earnings season comes into full effect, we expect a lacklustre picture with guarded guidance going forward. With the last two weeks gains we see profit-taking as a slow growth picture emerges. We are maintaining our down position, and will add a further 3 'sell' contracts if the market hits 1483. We will also adjust the stop-loss to 1487, but maintain our profit-taking level @ 1422-30.